Thank you for your interest in our Q3 Review. Please be on the lookout for the hard copy of my firm update coming in January. There will be two big pieces of news within that update involving some new opportunities in 2017.
What follows is an overview of the third quarter of 2016 and a requisite review of the events happening since. The unpredictable results of this election cycle have had quite an effect on the markets. At the highest level, domestic equities have taken off since November 8, while nearly every other asset class (foreign equities and all types of bonds) have been hurt. I’ll get into a bit more detail of these events first before moving on to a discussion of Q3 and the expectations for remainder of Q4.
I read many articles on “What Trump Means for Our Nation’s Economy” or “How the Election Will Impact the Market”. Most of these predictions were premature, and many were just flat out wrong. The rush to get these articles out whether right or wrong to get clicks actually mirrors the overreactions of the market. These first three weeks since November 8 are a predicable reaction to an unpredictable occurrence. Any time a surprise happens in investing, or in life for that matter, our first impulse is to react to an extreme. A successful investor remains reasoned and constructs a portfolio to get him where he or she needs to go, without taking unnecessary risks.
The market has viewed President-elect Trump with great hope for our domestic businesses. Domestic large cap equities in total were up 7.0% YTD by November 8. Since then they are up another 3.6%, making it 10.6% for the year. The sectors benefitting the most from the election are Financials, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, and Energy. Consumer Staples and Utilities / Telecom are both down since Trump became PEOTUS. Financials have had much congressional oversight in the past year, similar to Health Care. The market believes that Washington will now lessen its gaze on the financial industry with Trump in office.
The biggest hit since Trump won the electoral vote was to the bond market. Fears that his spending plans would be too inflationary caused a spike in rates. Foreign bonds are down around 6.0% since November 8, and domestic bonds are down roughly half that. Foreign equities were hit hard too as fears of stricter trade deals caused emerging market equities to tumble 5.3%.
I believe all of this movement to be an overreaction. While some movement was necessitated by the shocking turn of events, many of the conceived plans will be harder to implement in reality. A Republican controlled Congress will prove difficult to pass his spending and tax plans that were laid out during the campaign, because they are too deficit widening. In fact, Trump has already made concessions in his tax plan (raising the rates to 12%, 25%, and 33% versus the 10%, 20%, and 25% brackets he promised during the campaign).
Unfortunately, the hardest events to predict in the next four years will likely be the most impactful ones. The PEOTUS’s effect on international relations, his ability to control inflation, and increasing domestic unrest caused by both racial and class distinctions will ultimately define his success or failure. Ironically, many of the tax and spending policies he has proposed thus far do not benefit the more sparsely populated areas that helped him to win the Presidency. Trump has made a big bet on growth, which is great. But uncontrolled growth risks larger issues if unchecked, and the nation is hopeful the new administration can manage inflation, domestic unrest, and global politics in a manner that allows the United States to push to new heights.
As always, a diverse portfolio among our 14 asset categories remains the best strategy. The likelihood of positive growth for equities is without a doubt higher now that Trump is in office. But, in my opinion, so is the likelihood of a correction, so we must remain prudent and protect our gains.
Small cap equities are now the best performing asset class YTD. As far as the US economy goes, the unemployment figures are still hovering around 5.0%, not improving but still at a relatively healthy figure. (1). Home prices have been flat since Q1, up only 2.4% year to date. (2). However, corporate earnings are showing continued weakness as the energy sector struggles and a stronger dollar continues to hurt the earnings related to international operations. The estimated earnings per share of the S&P 500 for the full year 2016 was nearly $126 per share on December 31, 2015. Today, estimated earnings for the full year are only $109, a decline of 13.1% from expectations. 2017 estimated earnings are nearly $131, a 20.0% jump (3).
Emerging markets are making up some of the ground they lost in 2015, but are now the second best performing equity class in 2016 (+12.2% YTD).
Aforementioned, bonds have taken a hit recently. However, domestic government and corporate bonds are still up for the year despite a large increase in rates. The Fed’s second rate increase of the year is now 93.5% likely in December (5). However, it is not the actual rise that hurts bond returns. Instead it is the market expectations of interest rates that cause an increase or decrease in bond prices. As we have previously discussed, market expectations for a rate increase as well as the rate future increases have risen considerably since November 8. But as we have seen in the past, the market is terrible at predicting rate increases. People nearly always seem to overreact and expect rate increases to come sooner than reality and they also incorrectly expect a quicker rise than what actually happens. See the chart below from Deutsche Bank Research (4), which posed the following question at the beginning of 2015 as to whether the market would be correct and that rates would start to rise in the first half of 2015:
The black dotted lines are the market’s future expectations of the federal funds rate while the solid red line represents the actual federal funds rate. The answer to the chart’s question was a resounding “NO” in first 11 months of 2015. The market was wrong as usual. The Fed did not raise rates until December and only to 0.25%. So not only was the market wrong on the timing of the increase, but the steepness of the increase.
The hardest hit asset categories since Trump became PEOTUS. However, YTD these asset classes are still positive and emerging market bonds still have a very nice return (+7.7%).
Outlook for 2016
The outlook for 2016 has improved from cautious to reserved enthusiasm. We expect the return from the moderately allocated benchmark portfolio (asset category weights shown below) to return between 5-10%. Prior to the election I wrote that ‘Uncertainty has crept back into the market with the upcoming November election. It may be until after the election that markets really make a sustained move in either direction.’ Well, that direction has been up for the equity asset categories.
The remainder of this review will focus on our discretionary portfolio at Interactive Brokers. These accounts are adjusted quarterly for perceived strength or weakness seen across the various asset classes that we track. We compare performance versus a moderately allocated benchmark portfolio. The purpose of this portfolio is for growth and trading profits obtained through investments in ETFs according to a moderate risk profile. This portfolio is not meant for retirement and as such does not have the same risk profile of such accounts.
The current portfolio versus the benchmark portfolio is shown below. As you can see, the biggest shift in our current allocation for Q4 was from domestic equities (-16.0%) into domestic bonds (+7.0%) and foreign bonds (+5.0%). This move has proven to be incorrect, and the benchmark has outperformed thus far in Q4. As I mentioned, I was surprised by the election results along with most everyone else. However, YTD the portfolio is still up 3.5% after fees.
Please see below for the inception to date performance of the discretionary accounts at Interactive Brokers.
1 – “Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey.” Bureau of Labor Statistics – US Department of Labor.
2 – “S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index©.” St. Louis Federal Reserve.
3 – “S&P 500 Earnings and Estimate Report.” S&P Dow Jones Indices.
4 – “Investors Keep Guessing Wrong about the Fed’s Rate Moves”. Bloomberg Business.
5 – “Countdown to the FOMC”. CME Group.
None of the information or data presented herein constitutes a recommendation by Composed Financial Management, LLC (“the Firm”) or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities. Information presented is general information that does not take into account your individual circumstances, financial situation or needs, nor does it present a personalized recommendation to you. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and the information may be incomplete or condensed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
1 – The discretionary investment portfolio and associated benchmark portfolio are assumed to be rebalanced at the same time (every 3 to 4 months).
2 – The inception starting balance is set to $10,000 and performance is tracked as if no additional contributions or withdrawals are made to the portfolio. This is known as the time-weighted return.
3 – Fees are applied only to the discretionary portfolio managed by the Firm. No fees are applied to the benchmark portfolio. The assumed fees applied to the discretionary portfolio are 0.8%, based on our current maximum AUM fee. All fees are negotiable and not every client is charged a fee of 0.8%. No clients are charged an AUM fee of more than 0.8%. For a complete view on the pricing of the Firm, please visit www.composedfinancial.com/pricing.
4 – Risk Disclosure:
Investing in securities involves risk of loss that clients should be prepared to bear. No investment process is free of risk; no strategy or risk management technique can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. There is no guarantee that our investment processes will be profitable. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The value of investments, as well any investment income, is not guaranteed and can fluctuate based on market conditions. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss.
Our discretionary investment management style invests in ETFs that are exposed to a variety of different asset classes which may be subject to some or all of the following risks.
Equity Securities Risk – Equity securities include common stocks, preferred stocks, convertible securities, ETFs, and mutual funds that invest in these securities. Equity markets can be volatile. Stock prices rise and fall based on changes in an individual company’s financial condition and overall market conditions. Stock prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments.
Risk Related to Company Size –Investing in mid, small and micro capitalization companies generally involves greater risks than investing in larger companies. The market may value companies according to size or market capitalization rather than financial performance. As a result, if mid-cap, small cap or micro-cap investing is out of favor, these holdings may decline in price even though their fundamentals are sound. They may be more difficult to buy and sell, subject to greater business risks, and more sensitive to market changes, than larger capitalization securities.
Fixed Income Securities Risk – Fixed income securities include corporate bonds, municipal bonds, other debt instruments and mutual funds that invest in these securities. Issuers generally pay a fixed, variable, or floating interest rate, and must repay the amount borrowed at maturity. Some debt instruments, such as zero-coupon bonds, do not pay current interest, but are sold at a discount from their face value. Prices of fixed income securities generally decline when interest rates rise, and rise when interest rates fall. Longer-term debt and zero-coupon bonds are more sensitive to interest rate changes than debt instruments with shorter maturities. Fixed income securities are also subject to credit risk, which is the chance that an issuer will fail to pay interest or principal on time. Many fixed income securities receive credit ratings from Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations (NRSROs). These NRSROs assign ratings to securities by assessing the likelihood of issuer default. Changes in the credit strength of an issuer may reduce the credit rating of its debt investments and may affect their value. High-quality debt instruments are rated at least AA or its equivalent by any NRSRO or are unrated debt instruments of equivalent quality. Issuers of high-grade debt instruments are considered to have a very strong capacity to pay principal and interest. Investment grade debt instruments are rated at least Baa or its equivalent by any NRSRO or are unrated debt instruments of equivalent quality. Baa rated securities are considered to have adequate capacity to pay principal and interest, although they also have speculative characteristics. Lower rated debt securities are more likely to be adversely affected by changes in economic conditions than higher rated debt securities.
U.S. Government securities include securities issued or guaranteed by the U.S. Treasury; issued by a U.S.
Government agency; or issued by a Government-Sponsored Enterprise (GSE). U.S. Treasury securities include direct obligations of the U.S. Treasury, (i.e., Treasury bills, notes and bonds). U.S. Government agency bonds are backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. Government or guaranteed by the U.S. Treasury (such as securities of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA or Ginnie Mae)). GSE bonds are issued by certain federally-chartered but privately-owned corporations, but are neither direct obligations of, nor backed by the full faith and credit of, the U.S. Government. GSE bonds include: bonds issued by Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLB), Federal Farm Credit Banks (FCS), Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC or Freddie Mac) and the Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA or Fannie Mae).
Foreign Securities Risk – Investments in foreign securities involve certain risks that differ from the risks of investing in domestic securities. Adverse political, economic, social or other conditions in a foreign country may make the stocks of that country difficult or impossible to sell. It is more difficult to obtain reliable information about some foreign securities. The costs of investing in some foreign markets may be higher than investing in domestic markets. Investments in foreign securities also are subject to currency fluctuations.
Exchange-Traded Fund Risk – ETFs are open-end investment companies, unit investment trusts or depository receipts that hold portfolios of stocks, commodities and/or currencies that commonly are designed, before expenses, to closely track the performance and dividend yield of (i) a specific index, (ii) a basket of securities, commodities or currencies, or (iii) a particular commodity or currency. Recently, the SEC has authorized the creation of actively managed ETFs. Currently, the types of indices sought to be replicated by ETFs most often include domestic equity indices, fixed income indices, sector indices and foreign or international indices. ETF shares are traded on exchanges and are traded and priced throughout the trading day. ETFs permit an investor to purchase a selling interest in a portfolio of stocks throughout the trading day. Because ETFs trade on an exchange, they may not trade at NAV. Sometimes, the prices of ETFs may vary significantly from the NAVs of the ETFs’ underlying securities. Additionally, if an investor decides to redeem ETF shares rather than selling them on a secondary market, the investor may receive the underlying securities which must be sold in order to obtain cash.
Liquidity Risk – Trading opportunities are more limited for fixed income securities that have not received any credit ratings, have received ratings below investment grade, or for fixed income and equity securities that are not widely held. Liquidity risk also refers to the possibility a security cannot be sold at an ideal time. If this happens, a client account may be required to continue to hold the security and losses could be incurred.
Investment Management Style Risk – We take an active management approach to investing. There is no guarantee that our strategies will produce their intended results. There is a risk that a particular type of investment on which an account focuses (such as small cap value stocks) may underperform other asset classes or the overall market. Individual market segments tend to go through cycles of performing better or worse than other types of securities. These periods may last as long as several years. Additionally, a particular market segment could fall out of favor with investors, causing a strategy that focuses on that market segment to underperform those that favor other types of securities.
Value Investing Risk – A value-oriented investment approach involves the risk that value stocks may remain undervalued, or may not appreciate in value as anticipated. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole or from other types of stocks and may be out of favor with investors for varying periods of time.
Focused Investing Risk – With a focused portfolio there is the risk that a material event, which negatively impacts one or more of the securities, could have a meaningful negative impact on portfolio performance.